Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | APSU -163 JXST +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JXST +6 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | JXST -2.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JXST -0.5 (-5.5) | 142.3 (+3.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JXST -0.1 (-5.9) | 139.2 (+6.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JXST -0.3 (-5.7) | 141.7 (+4.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JXST -0.7 (-5.3) | 141.2 (+4.8) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2023 | JXST 70 – 53 APSU |
| Feb 27, 2021 | JXST 75 – 67 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-13 | 18-9 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-6 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#257) | -0.7 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#204) | 0.07 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#252) | 0.13 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#248) | 0.508 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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