Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | AF +900 SDSU -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +37 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -14.8 (-22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 116.3 (+42.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -13.2 (-23.8) | 125.3 (+33.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -14.1 (-22.9) | 126.0 (+33.0) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -18.3 (-18.7) | 126.0 (+33.0) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -13.7 (-23.3) | 127.0 (+32.0) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | SDSU 88 – 54 AF |
| Dec 18, 2025 | SDSU 81 – 58 AF |
| Jan 23, 2025 | SDSU 77 – 76 AF |
| Jan 9, 2025 | SDSU 67 – 38 AF |
| Feb 7, 2024 | SDSU 77 – 64 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-20 | 23-5 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 14-3 |
| Home | 3-8 | 13-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-2 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.7 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 61.9 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#284) | 10.1 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#188) | 1.89 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#235) | 2.35 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#175) | 0.622 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 24.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 4.0 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 14.6% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.