Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UCSD +134 UCD -158 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +20 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -8.2 (+28.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -5.0 (+25.0) | 146.3 (+11.7) | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -4.6 (+24.6) | 145.6 (+12.4) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -3.0 (+23.0) | 147.4 (+10.6) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -4.0 (+24.0) | 147.4 (+10.6) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | UCSD 68 – 51 UCD |
| Jan 23, 2026 | UCSD 80 – 74 UCD |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCSD 68 – 57 UCD |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCSD 85 – 60 UCD |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UCD 70 – 63 UCSD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-10 | 10-8 |
| Conference | 0-0 | 6-4 |
| Home | 7-3 | 4-3 |
| Away | 0-7 | 4-3 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -12.8 (#330) | -1.8 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#316) | -0.54 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.02 (#317) | -1.00 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.356 (#336) | 0.482 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 26.0 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 5.3 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 15.5% | 15.5% |
| FT Rate | 13.2% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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