Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | SAC +140 MONT -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAC +6 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -0.1 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.8 (+51.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAC -0.5 (+5.5) | 127.5 (+44.5) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAC -0.3 (+5.7) | 124.1 (+47.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAC -0.5 (+5.5) | 129.2 (+42.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -0.0 (+6.0) | 127.7 (+44.3) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MONT 81 – 73 SAC |
| Feb 1, 2026 | SAC 86 – 79 MONT |
| Feb 28, 2025 | MONT 60 – 54 SAC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MONT 87 – 59 SAC |
| Feb 23, 2024 | MONT 68 – 61 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAC | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-12 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 7-9 |
| Home | 5-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#225) | -0.6 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#280) | -1.09 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#276) | -1.05 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#291) | 0.491 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAC | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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