Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | STAN +225 UCLA -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -1.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -1.6 (-0.6) | 145.0 (-0.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -0.1 (+0.9) | 140.8 (+4.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -1.2 (-0.2) | 144.3 (+0.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -1.3 (-0.3) | 146.4 (-1.4) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2024 | UCLA 82 – 74 STAN |
| Jan 4, 2024 | STAN 59 – 53 UCLA |
| Feb 17, 2023 | UCLA 73 – 64 STAN |
| Dec 2, 2022 | UCLA 80 – 66 STAN |
| Feb 9, 2022 | UCLA 79 – 70 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-13 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-6 |
| Home | 5-4 | 11-1 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#54) | 11.5 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#63) | 2.72 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#59) | 3.32 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#33) | 0.619 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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