Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | VAN +400 ARK -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +21 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -11.2 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -9.4 (-11.6) | 153.9 (+9.1) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -9.2 (-11.8) | 152.2 (+10.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -10.8 (-10.2) | 156.5 (+6.5) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -10.7 (-10.3) | 154.2 (+8.8) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | ARK 86 – 75 VAN |
| Jan 21, 2026 | ARK 93 – 68 VAN |
| Mar 5, 2025 | ARK 90 – 77 VAN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | ARK 90 – 85 VAN |
| Feb 28, 2024 | VAN 85 – 82 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 25-7 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 13-4 |
| Home | 6-7 | 16-1 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#163) | 14.1 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#221) | 1.98 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#194) | 2.61 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#268) | 0.588 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 42.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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