Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | PUR +188 MICH -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +17 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | MICH -3.4 (-13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -0.4 (-16.6) | 135.7 (-12.7) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -1.5 (-15.5) | 132.2 (-9.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -1.1 (-15.9) | 135.4 (-12.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -1.0 (-16.0) | 135.9 (-12.9) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | PUR 80 – 72 MICH |
| Feb 17, 2026 | MICH 91 – 80 PUR |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MICH 86 – 68 PUR |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MICH 75 – 73 PUR |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PUR 91 – 64 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-10 | 23-5 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 14-3 |
| Home | 11-1 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 65.1 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#36) | 18.3 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#26) | 3.91 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.60 (#24) | 5.28 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#35) | 0.662 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 51.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 43.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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