Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UTC +170 UNCG -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +8 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | UTC -0.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -0.5 (-8.5) | 140.4 (-0.4) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -0.8 (-7.2) | 141.1 (-1.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -0.3 (-8.3) | 144.8 (-4.8) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -0.2 (-8.2) | 142.9 (-2.9) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UNCG 85 – 80 UTC |
| Jan 1, 2026 | UNCG 77 – 72 UTC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UTC 75 – 63 UNCG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UNCG 78 – 75 UTC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UTC 89 – 61 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-8 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-3 | 7-3 |
| Away | 9-4 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#152) | 3.1 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#117) | 0.68 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#128) | 0.94 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#118) | 0.541 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 41.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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