Betting Lines
| Spread | PRST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | PRST -120 IDST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRST +26 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | PRST -0.2 (+25.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRST -0.3 (+25.7) | 130.6 (-18.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRST -0.8 (+25.2) | 127.7 (-15.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRST -1.1 (+24.9) | 130.6 (-18.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -0.0 (+26.0) | 130.9 (-18.9) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | PRST 85 – 78 IDST |
| Feb 3, 2026 | PRST 88 – 65 IDST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PRST 93 – 87 IDST |
| Feb 21, 2025 | IDST 82 – 74 PRST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PRST 76 – 59 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRST | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-13 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 8-6 |
| Home | 7-6 | 8-3 |
| Away | 2-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 64.5 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#290) | -5.2 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#304) | -0.90 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.03 (#318) | -1.60 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.380 (#321) | 0.445 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRST | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.0% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 25.5% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.0% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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