Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | ALST +160 ALCN -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +5 | 109 | Lost |
| Massey | ALCN -1.1 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (-28.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -0.8 (-4.2) | 134.9 (-25.9) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -0.4 (-5.4) | 129.6 (-20.6) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -0.4 (-4.6) | 135.7 (-26.7) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -0.6 (-4.4) | 135.6 (-26.6) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | ALCN 77 – 65 ALST |
| Jan 13, 2026 | ALST 81 – 66 ALCN |
| Jan 14, 2025 | ALCN 67 – 65 ALST |
| Jan 13, 2024 | ALST 55 – 53 ALCN |
| Jan 9, 2023 | ALCN 92 – 76 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-14 | 6-13 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 6-7 |
| Home | 3-6 | 4-3 |
| Away | 1-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -18.8 (#343) | -14.9 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.22 (#335) | -1.75 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.25 (#340) | -2.59 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.315 (#346) | 0.442 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.1% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 59.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 35.5% |
Game Analysis
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