Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | ALST -163 ALCN +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +2 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -8.7 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-40.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -5.5 (-3.5) | 144.4 (-36.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -4.2 (-2.2) | 143.7 (-35.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -6.0 (-4.0) | 144.0 (-36.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -6.2 (-4.2) | 144.3 (-36.3) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | ALCN 77 – 65 ALST |
| Jan 13, 2026 | ALST 81 – 66 ALCN |
| Jan 14, 2025 | ALCN 67 – 65 ALST |
| Jan 9, 2023 | ALCN 92 – 76 ALST |
| Jan 11, 2022 | ALCN 70 – 60 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-5 | 7-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 7-14 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#282) | -11.1 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#252) | -1.57 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#262) | -2.23 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#179) | 0.441 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.3% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.8% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 59.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.2% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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