Betting Lines
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
| Money | ALST +105 ALCN -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +10 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -0.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -0.7 (-9.3) | 141.3 (-11.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -0.6 (-10.6) | 139.0 (-9.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -0.2 (-9.8) | 141.5 (-11.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -0.4 (-10.4) | 141.6 (-11.6) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | ALCN 77 – 65 ALST |
| Jan 13, 2026 | ALST 81 – 66 ALCN |
| Jan 14, 2025 | ALCN 67 – 65 ALST |
| Jan 13, 2024 | ALST 55 – 53 ALCN |
| Jan 9, 2023 | ALCN 92 – 76 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 6-6 | 6-3 |
| Away | 3-15 | 9-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#298) | -4.1 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#316) | -0.71 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.52 (#317) | -0.84 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#305) | 0.502 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 43.2% |
| TOV% | 23.8% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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