Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | ALCN +160 ALST -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +2 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -3.3 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (-19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -4.0 (+6.0) | 148.5 (-16.5) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -2.4 (+4.4) | 143.6 (-11.6) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -3.3 (+5.3) | 146.6 (-14.6) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -4.0 (+6.0) | 149.4 (-17.4) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | ALCN 77 – 65 ALST |
| Jan 13, 2026 | ALST 81 – 66 ALCN |
| Jan 13, 2024 | ALST 55 – 53 ALCN |
| Jan 9, 2023 | ALCN 92 – 76 ALST |
| Jan 11, 2022 | ALCN 70 – 60 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-3 | 8-3 |
| Away | 5-17 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -13.6 (#350) | -6.6 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.78 (#349) | -1.04 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.32 (#346) | -1.40 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#315) | 0.432 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.4% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.