Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | ALST -470 ALCN +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +15 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -10.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -6.8 (+8.2) | 148.2 (-1.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -6.8 (+8.2) | 149.8 (-2.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -5.1 (+9.9) | 149.7 (-2.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -7.7 (+7.3) | 150.1 (-3.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | ALCN 77 – 65 ALST |
| Jan 14, 2025 | ALCN 67 – 65 ALST |
| Jan 13, 2024 | ALST 55 – 53 ALCN |
| Jan 9, 2023 | ALCN 92 – 76 ALST |
| Jan 11, 2022 | ALCN 70 – 60 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-4 | 5-4 |
| Away | 4-15 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#321) | -17.2 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#327) | -1.39 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#330) | -2.00 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#308) | 0.449 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 58.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 59.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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