Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | ALCN -333 ALST +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +16 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -9.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -6.4 (+9.6) | 142.9 (+25.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -7.4 (+8.6) | 140.9 (+27.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -7.2 (+8.8) | 141.4 (+26.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -6.7 (+9.3) | 140.5 (+27.5) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | ALCN 77 – 65 ALST |
| Jan 13, 2026 | ALST 81 – 66 ALCN |
| Jan 14, 2025 | ALCN 67 – 65 ALST |
| Jan 13, 2024 | ALST 55 – 53 ALCN |
| Jan 11, 2022 | ALCN 70 – 60 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-2 | 5-5 |
| Away | 10-10 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#294) | -12.2 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#224) | -1.72 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#198) | -2.22 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#201) | 0.407 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 35.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.5% | 40.0% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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