Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | ALST -375 ALCN +295 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +12 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -6.9 (-18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -5.1 (-17.1) | 142.0 (+0.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -5.7 (-17.7) | 140.2 (+1.8) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -5.1 (-17.1) | 139.5 (+2.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -5.6 (-17.6) | 137.8 (+4.2) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 13, 2026 | ALST 81 – 66 ALCN |
| Jan 14, 2025 | ALCN 67 – 65 ALST |
| Jan 13, 2024 | ALST 55 – 53 ALCN |
| Jan 9, 2023 | ALCN 92 – 76 ALST |
| Jan 11, 2022 | ALCN 70 – 60 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-4 | 5-4 |
| Away | 4-15 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#321) | -17.8 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#326) | -1.99 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#324) | -2.76 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#335) | 0.412 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.7% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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