Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | ILST -120 VAL +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +9 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | ILST -4.0 (-13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (-9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -4.3 (-13.3) | 134.7 (-5.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -3.4 (-12.4) | 134.5 (-5.5) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -3.6 (-12.6) | 138.3 (-9.3) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -3.8 (-12.8) | 135.3 (-6.3) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | ILST 86 – 64 VAL |
| Jan 8, 2026 | VAL 77 – 71 ILST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ILST 86 – 78 VAL |
| Mar 3, 2024 | VAL 75 – 72 ILST |
| Jan 14, 2024 | VAL 59 – 50 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-18 | 10-18 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 3-8 | 6-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#249) | -6.2 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#233) | -2.07 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#228) | -2.22 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#270) | 0.392 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 19.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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