Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UL -450 ARST +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +13 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UL -11.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -10.6 (+2.4) | 145.1 (+3.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -9.0 (+4.0) | 143.4 (+5.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -10.7 (+2.3) | 144.4 (+4.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -10.6 (+2.4) | 144.1 (+4.9) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ARST 81 – 58 UL |
| Feb 20, 2026 | ARST 79 – 62 UL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | ARST 83 – 64 UL |
| Jan 17, 2025 | ARST 83 – 63 UL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ARST 89 – 62 UL |
Game Analysis
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