Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -700 PROV +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +15 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -10.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-22.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -10.7 (+4.3) | 147.6 (-20.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -8.8 (+6.2) | 143.5 (-16.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -11.1 (+3.9) | 146.8 (-19.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -9.6 (+5.4) | 146.9 (-19.9) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | VILL 87 – 73 PROV |
| Jan 13, 2026 | VILL 88 – 82 PROV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PROV 75 – 62 VILL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | VILL 75 – 73 PROV |
| Mar 2, 2024 | VILL 71 – 60 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 9-10 |
| Home | 9-0 | 8-3 |
| Away | 4-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 15.3 (#16) | 7.9 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.67 (#6) | 1.79 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.68 (#8) | 2.42 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.627 (#14) | 0.558 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.89 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 12.0% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 79.0% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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