Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UCF +210 SMU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +13 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -1.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -0.2 (-12.8) | 138.4 (+4.6) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -0.9 (-12.1) | 136.1 (+6.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -0.3 (-13.3) | 137.5 (+5.5) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -0.4 (-13.4) | 136.8 (+6.2) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2023 | UCF 76 – 70 SMU |
| Jan 8, 2023 | UCF 85 – 53 SMU |
| Jan 2, 2022 | SMU 72 – 60 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-12 | 11-6 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-4 |
| Home | 6-3 | 6-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-2 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#88) | 10.6 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#68) | 2.21 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.61 (#52) | 3.18 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#68) | 0.571 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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