Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | UCF -350 SMU +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +6 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -10.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -9.4 (-3.4) | 140.0 (+6.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -8.4 (-2.4) | 138.1 (+7.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -9.3 (-3.3) | 139.2 (+6.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -9.6 (-3.6) | 140.1 (+5.9) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2023 | UCF 85 – 53 SMU |
| Jan 2, 2022 | SMU 72 – 60 UCF |
| Jan 23, 2021 | SMU 78 – 65 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-6 | 7-9 |
| Away | 5-7 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#62) | -1.5 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#103) | -0.49 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#94) | -0.38 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#110) | 0.480 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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