Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +12 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -0.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -1.5 (+10.5) | 143.7 (-11.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -2.1 (+9.9) | 143.3 (-11.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -1.4 (+10.6) | 146.7 (-14.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -2.0 (+10.0) | 145.8 (-13.8) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2023 | UCF 76 – 70 SMU |
| Jan 8, 2023 | UCF 85 – 53 SMU |
| Jan 23, 2021 | SMU 78 – 65 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#87) | 9.3 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#97) | 2.38 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#99) | 3.30 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#114) | 0.583 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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