Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -500 SMU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +32 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -13.8 (+18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.0 (+8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -10.9 (+21.1) | 133.4 (+4.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -11.2 (+20.8) | 132.4 (+5.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -11.2 (+20.8) | 132.0 (+6.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -11.3 (+20.7) | 132.8 (+5.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2023 | UCF 76 – 70 SMU |
| Jan 2, 2022 | SMU 72 – 60 UCF |
| Jan 23, 2021 | SMU 78 – 65 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-6 | 7-9 |
| Away | 5-7 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#51) | -0.2 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#46) | -0.10 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#33) | 0.31 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#36) | 0.504 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.