Betting Lines
| Spread | EIU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | TNST +130 EIU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +11 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | EIU -0.8 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EIU -0.6 (+11.6) | 140.2 (-21.2) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EIU -0.7 (+11.7) | 140.5 (-21.5) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EIU -0.4 (+11.4) | 143.7 (-24.7) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EIU -0.2 (+11.2) | 139.7 (-20.7) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | TNST 77 – 68 EIU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | EIU 74 – 70 TNST |
| Feb 14, 2025 | TNST 66 – 49 EIU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TNST 84 – 65 EIU |
| Feb 23, 2024 | TNST 78 – 73 EIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-19 | 9-18 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 6-14 |
| Home | 4-8 | 5-7 |
| Away | 0-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#310) | -6.3 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.42 (#336) | -1.20 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.05 (#332) | -1.67 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.331 (#343) | 0.434 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.7% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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