Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | USA -120 GASO +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +14 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | USA -8.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-36.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -5.7 (+8.3) | 143.5 (-33.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -4.9 (+9.1) | 137.9 (-27.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -5.4 (+8.6) | 140.8 (-30.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -6.0 (+8.0) | 142.5 (-32.5) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | GASO 94 – 85 USA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | USA 87 – 71 GASO |
| Jan 4, 2025 | USA 76 – 47 GASO |
| Mar 7, 2024 | GASO 76 – 71 USA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | USA 78 – 65 GASO |
Game Analysis
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