Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UK -110 LSU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +13 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -4.6 (+17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -2.3 (+15.3) | 145.7 (+5.3) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -2.7 (+15.7) | 144.7 (+6.3) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -2.2 (+15.2) | 147.8 (+3.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -1.8 (+14.8) | 145.8 (+5.2) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | UK 87 – 82 LSU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | UK 75 – 74 LSU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UK 95 – 64 LSU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | LSU 75 – 74 UK |
| Jan 4, 2023 | UK 74 – 71 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 19-10 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 11-6 |
| Home | 5-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#82) | 14.0 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#139) | 2.31 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#95) | 3.09 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#129) | 0.635 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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