Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -125 DUKE +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -6.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -6.3 (-1.3) | 143.3 (-8.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -4.6 (+0.4) | 138.9 (-3.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -6.1 (-1.1) | 143.1 (-8.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -6.3 (-1.3) | 144.0 (-9.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | DUKE 83 – 52 LOU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | DUKE 84 – 73 LOU |
| Mar 16, 2025 | DUKE 73 – 62 LOU |
| Dec 8, 2024 | DUKE 76 – 65 LOU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 59 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-7 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-4 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#57) | 5.5 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#35) | 0.80 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.91 (#42) | 1.43 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#23) | 0.504 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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