Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UTU +700 GCU -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +3 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -14.7 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -11.8 (+8.8) | 140.4 (+10.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -11.4 (+8.4) | 136.7 (+14.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -12.4 (+9.4) | 140.2 (+10.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -11.7 (+8.7) | 141.4 (+9.6) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2025 | GCU 90 – 68 UTU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | GCU 79 – 66 UTU |
| Feb 16, 2024 | GCU 73 – 61 UTU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | GCU 75 – 65 UTU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | GCU 71 – 61 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-13 | 17-7 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 9-3 |
| Home | 5-7 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-6 | 5-1 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 62.8 |
| Massey | -13.6 (#335) | 4.0 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#296) | -0.19 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.01 (#316) | 0.47 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#283) | 0.460 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 79.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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