Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | SJU -1400 UVU +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +18 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -9.4 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.7 (+13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -9.5 (+8.5) | 154.8 (+19.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -8.2 (+9.8) | 152.9 (+21.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -9.1 (+8.9) | 156.3 (+17.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -9.7 (+8.3) | 153.0 (+21.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-11 | 11-11 |
| Conference | 10-9 | 9-4 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#100) | -1.7 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#99) | -0.92 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#92) | -1.64 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#121) | 0.478 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 77.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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