Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | USA -125 GASO +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +9 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -8.0 (-17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -5.6 (-14.6) | 142.5 (+16.5) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -4.9 (-13.9) | 137.1 (+21.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -5.4 (-14.4) | 139.9 (+19.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -6.0 (-15.0) | 141.4 (+17.6) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | GASO 94 – 85 USA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | USA 87 – 71 GASO |
| Jan 4, 2025 | USA 76 – 47 GASO |
| Mar 7, 2024 | GASO 76 – 71 USA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | USA 78 – 65 GASO |
Game Analysis
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