Betting Lines
| Spread | NE -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | NE -200 JMU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NE +9 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | NE -4.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NE -4.0 (+5.0) | 138.6 (-3.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NE -5.2 (+3.8) | 139.0 (-4.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NE -5.4 (+3.6) | 138.3 (-3.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NE -5.4 (+3.6) | 140.7 (-5.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2022 | JMU 76 – 71 NE |
| Jan 12, 2022 | JMU 89 – 66 NE |
| Jan 24, 2021 | JMU 79 – 72 NE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NE | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-9 | 13-7 |
| Conference | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| Home | 5-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#145) | -0.4 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#105) | -0.30 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#124) | -0.50 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#27) | 0.501 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NE | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 18.9% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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