Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | UCR -163 CSUB +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUB +2 | 92 | Lost |
| Massey | UCR -7.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.1 (-27.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -4.7 (-6.7) | 126.6 (-34.6) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -4.5 (-6.5) | 126.2 (-34.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -4.0 (-6.0) | 128.9 (-36.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -5.1 (-7.1) | 128.5 (-36.5) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UCR 93 – 65 CSUB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | CSUB 67 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCR 69 – 64 CSUB |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCR 83 – 79 CSUB |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UCR 83 – 78 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-8 | 15-11 |
| Conference | 8-4 | 9-7 |
| Home | 5-4 | 9-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 65.7 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#79) | 1.7 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#184) | 0.82 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#184) | 1.32 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#223) | 0.537 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 41.5% |
| FT Rate | 11.9% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 32.4% |
Game Analysis
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