Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | SDST -1400 UND +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +19 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -15.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -11.2 (+7.8) | 146.5 (+18.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -10.3 (+8.7) | 142.5 (+22.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -12.1 (+6.9) | 143.7 (+21.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -12.5 (+6.5) | 145.5 (+19.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SDST 91 – 83 UND |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UND 90 – 87 SDST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UND 85 – 69 SDST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UND 80 – 75 SDST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SDST 109 – 73 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-7 | 9-17 |
| Conference | 9-3 | 8-8 |
| Home | 8-1 | 5-3 |
| Away | 4-2 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#102) | -7.5 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#98) | -1.50 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#122) | -2.28 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#89) | 0.440 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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