Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UAPB +450 TXSO -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +9 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | TXSO -13.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (-26.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -8.6 (-0.4) | 145.2 (-22.2) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -9.6 (+0.6) | 139.0 (-16.0) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -8.2 (-0.8) | 142.4 (-19.4) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -8.0 (-1.0) | 140.2 (-17.2) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | TXSO 83 – 64 UAPB |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UAPB 74 – 66 TXSO |
| Feb 25, 2025 | TXSO 81 – 56 UAPB |
| Feb 4, 2025 | UAPB 69 – 68 TXSO |
| Feb 27, 2024 | TXSO 77 – 70 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-21 | 17-9 |
| Conference | 3-12 | 10-3 |
| Home | 2-3 | 8-2 |
| Away | 2-17 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.0 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -20.5 (#346) | -4.7 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#310) | -1.26 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.65 (#327) | -2.47 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#289) | 0.460 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.2% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.9% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.9% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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