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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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20–14 on winners spread MAE 10.0 34 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Rutgers @ Penn State	+2.7	145.8	64%	67–75	✓
Wichita State @ Memphis	-0.4	141.0	48%	52–72	✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Central Connecticut	-3.4	131.8	36%	67–57	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Merrimack	+3.7	153.5	66%	51–62	✓
Saint Francis @ Sacred Heart	+0.7	143.9	56%	76–58	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State	+6.9	130.5	79%	65–76	✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Kentucky	+14.6	154.8	90%	73–113	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Belmont	+13.8	155.4	88%	66–79	✓
Saint Mary's @ Loyola Marymount	+1.7	126.2	60%	65–61	✗
Montana State @ Northern Arizona	-4.5	141.2	27%	62–51	✓
Montana @ Sacramento State	+1.9	124.5	60%	78–66	✗
Jacksonville State @ Murray State	+0.9	133.3	56%	85–82	✗
Tennessee Tech @ Austin Peay	+7.5	146.5	79%	69–72	✓
Eastern Washington @ Northern Colorado	-1.5	139.3	43%	76–78	✗
Indiana @ Iowa	+12.9	160.1	87%	81–69	✗
UCLA @ California	-7.8	144.3	23%	61–57	✓
Arizona @ Arizona State	-6.6	155.6	28%	84–82	✓
Portland @ BYU	+19.6	148.3	91%	67–95	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State	-0.0	137.2	46%	67–65	✓
Pacific @ Pepperdine	-2.2	141.8	37%	68–85	✗
Southern Utah @ Weber State	+7.6	158.7	79%	67–91	✓
Utah @ Washington State	+1.4	135.0	59%	71–56	✗
San Francisco @ Santa Clara	-1.6	134.6	49%	73–50	✓
Idaho State @ Portland State	+0.2	133.1	49%	64–57	✗
Colorado State @ Utah State	+6.8	138.5	73%	84–76	✗
Wright State @ IU Indianapolis	-11.6	137.6	18%	95–65	✓
Niagara @ Quinnipiac	-0.4	130.1	48%	59–56	✓
Saint Francis @ Sacred Heart	+0.5	144.2	57%	70–82	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Merrimack	+3.6	150.7	67%	71–76	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Central Connecticut	-3.3	130.5	36%	64–65	✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay	-3.0	158.5	36%	59–77	✗
UIC @ Youngstown State	-1.9	144.9	43%	67–66	✓
Georgia State @ App State	-1.6	148.4	37%	71–80	✗
Troy @ Coastal Carolina	+12.6	132.4	87%	81–90	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.