Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP -138 PAC +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +17 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | PAC -4.3 (+21.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -2.2 (+19.2) | 141.8 (+11.2) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -2.4 (+19.4) | 142.0 (+11.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -1.9 (+18.9) | 144.6 (+8.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -2.1 (+19.1) | 142.4 (+10.6) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | PAC 92 – 59 PEPP |
| Jan 5, 2026 | PAC 74 – 69 PEPP |
| Jan 26, 2025 | PEPP 60 – 44 PAC |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PEPP 87 – 70 PAC |
| Mar 7, 2024 | PEPP 102 – 43 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-12 | 9-9 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 6-7 |
| Home | 7-5 | 6-2 |
| Away | 3-5 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#196) | 5.4 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#195) | 1.74 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#189) | 1.79 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#181) | 0.673 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 79.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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