Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | USU -333 CSU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +8 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -7.7 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -6.8 (-14.8) | 138.5 (+21.5) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -5.8 (-13.8) | 140.8 (+19.2) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -6.3 (-14.3) | 140.1 (+19.9) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -6.5 (-14.5) | 139.8 (+20.2) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | USU 65 – 61 CSU |
| Dec 20, 2025 | USU 100 – 58 CSU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | CSU 83 – 72 USU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CSU 93 – 66 USU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | USU 93 – 85 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-9 | 20-8 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-2 | 10-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#34) | 7.2 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#59) | 1.69 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#77) | 1.61 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#58) | 0.594 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 19.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 80.2% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 13.5% |
Game Analysis
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