Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | LMU +120 SMC -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +4 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | LMU -0.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -1.7 (-5.7) | 126.2 (-0.2) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -0.6 (-4.6) | 125.8 (+0.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -1.8 (-5.8) | 127.7 (-1.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -2.0 (-6.0) | 124.9 (+1.1) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | SMC 78 – 73 LMU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | SMC 58 – 55 LMU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | SMC 81 – 56 LMU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | SMC 70 – 65 LMU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | SMC 68 – 64 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-9 | 14-10 |
| Conference | 7-5 | 4-6 |
| Home | 8-3 | 9-3 |
| Away | 4-5 | 2-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 62.6 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#124) | 5.3 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#83) | 1.05 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#113) | 1.26 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#76) | 0.531 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 80.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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