Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | TNST -150 SIUE +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIUE +2 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | SIUE -0.4 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIUE -0.0 (-2.0) | 137.2 (-5.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -1.0 (-3.0) | 136.4 (-4.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -0.4 (-2.4) | 140.1 (-8.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -0.6 (-2.6) | 137.7 (-5.7) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | TNST 80 – 53 SIUE |
| Jan 23, 2026 | SIUE 74 – 66 TNST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SIUE 71 – 69 TNST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SIUE 84 – 72 TNST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SIUE 87 – 80 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-19 | 9-17 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 7-12 |
| Home | 4-8 | 2-8 |
| Away | 0-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#305) | -6.1 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.22 (#335) | -1.21 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.90 (#331) | -1.70 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.338 (#340) | 0.445 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 24.2% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.9% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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