Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | NAU +240 MTST -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +11 | 113 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -6.7 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-31.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -4.5 (-6.5) | 141.2 (-28.2) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -4.3 (-6.7) | 138.4 (-25.4) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -4.3 (-6.7) | 138.7 (-25.7) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -4.6 (-6.4) | 141.6 (-28.6) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | MTST 76 – 65 NAU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MTST 77 – 68 NAU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | NAU 69 – 64 MTST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MTST 58 – 53 NAU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NAU 76 – 71 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-16 | 13-10 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 8-6 |
| Home | 1-7 | 5-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#313) | -1.1 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.16 (#320) | 0.39 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.03 (#318) | 0.28 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#259) | 0.548 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 20.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.6% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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