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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–9 on winners
spread MAE 10.1
25 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Providence
@
Creighton
|
+11.4 | 152.2 | 85% | 74–70 | ✗ |
Clemson
@
Georgia Tech
|
-0.4 | 136.2 | 51% | 65–83 | ✗ |
Radford
@
Campbell
|
+0.2 | 138.1 | 48% | 67–61 | ✗ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Valparaiso
|
-12.1 | 132.2 | 15% | 75–39 | ✓ |
Wake Forest
@
North Carolina
|
+8.0 | 138.1 | 79% | 73–80 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
George Mason
|
+5.9 | 146.0 | 74% | 85–87 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
Georgia
|
+1.8 | 147.7 | 63% | 62–63 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
Gardner-Webb
|
+1.4 | 148.5 | 58% | 57–84 | ✓ |
Furman
@
VMI
|
-8.4 | 159.5 | 22% | 73–74 | ✗ |
SE Louisiana
@
McNeese
|
-4.3 | 140.5 | 29% | 92–88 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+11.3 | 146.7 | 86% | 74–86 | ✓ |
Tulsa
@
Houston
|
+13.0 | 126.6 | 86% | 59–86 | ✓ |
Northwestern
@
Wisconsin
|
+8.1 | 137.8 | 80% | 52–68 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
LSU New Orleans
|
+3.7 | 137.6 | 65% | 68–87 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
Houston Christian
|
-7.0 | 151.4 | 24% | 92–83 | ✓ |
Chattanooga
@
Samford
|
+0.9 | 150.9 | 53% | 70–64 | ✗ |
Bradley
@
Illinois State
|
-7.6 | 136.8 | 22% | 56–71 | ✗ |
Colorado
@
Washington
|
-14.6 | 141.5 | 13% | 80–84 | ✗ |
Fresno State
@
Boise State
|
+16.9 | 142.0 | 91% | 51–73 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Arkansas
|
+9.8 | 155.2 | 81% | 73–75 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
Sam Houston
|
-3.1 | 136.7 | 41% | 57–64 | ✗ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Buffalo
|
+14.9 | 152.7 | 90% | 77–92 | ✓ |
San José State
@
New Mexico
|
+7.1 | 137.6 | 79% | 51–67 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Miami (OH)
|
-4.4 | 144.1 | 35% | 77–96 | ✗ |
Central Michigan
@
Akron
|
+10.5 | 150.4 | 87% | 67–81 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.