Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | SAM +130 UTC -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +6 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | UTC -0.7 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -0.9 (-6.9) | 150.9 (-16.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -0.0 (-6.0) | 145.8 (-11.8) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -0.1 (-5.9) | 152.1 (-18.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -0.5 (-6.5) | 151.8 (-17.8) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | SAM 75 – 64 UTC |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UTC 88 – 79 SAM |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UTC 82 – 68 SAM |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SAM 73 – 69 UTC |
| Feb 3, 2024 | SAM 78 – 56 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-13 | 18-8 |
| Conference | 2-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 4-5 | 9-3 |
| Away | 2-7 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#219) | 0.4 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#194) | 0.63 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#180) | 0.60 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#178) | 0.523 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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