Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -600 WAKE +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +7 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -7.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -8.0 (-1.0) | 138.1 (+14.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -7.0 (-0.0) | 133.9 (+19.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -8.4 (-1.4) | 137.4 (+15.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -9.1 (-2.1) | 139.3 (+13.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNC 87 – 84 WAKE |
| Mar 13, 2025 | UNC 68 – 59 WAKE |
| Jan 22, 2025 | WAKE 67 – 66 UNC |
| Jan 23, 2024 | UNC 85 – 64 WAKE |
| Feb 8, 2023 | WAKE 92 – 85 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-1 | 5-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#47) | 5.4 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#59) | -0.88 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#55) | -0.75 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#51) | 0.448 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 43.9 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 16.4 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 41.8% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.