Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | BOIS -900 FRES +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BOIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +22 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | BOIS -22.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -16.9 (+5.1) | 142.0 (-18.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BOIS -15.8 (+6.2) | 135.5 (-11.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -17.7 (+4.3) | 142.4 (-18.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -18.1 (+3.9) | 142.2 (-18.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | BOIS 69 – 53 FRES |
| Mar 2, 2025 | BOIS 66 – 61 FRES |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BOIS 82 – 60 FRES |
| Feb 18, 2024 | BOIS 90 – 66 FRES |
| Jan 24, 2024 | BOIS 72 – 68 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BOIS | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-9 | 12-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-1 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#23) | -5.6 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.62 (#8) | -0.78 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.85 (#8) | -0.83 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#11) | 0.434 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BOIS | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 79.7% | 78.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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