Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | VAL +600 LUC -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +36 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -13.2 (-22.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -12.3 (-23.7) | 128.3 (-14.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -12.1 (-23.9) | 132.2 (-18.2) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -15.3 (-20.7) | 132.6 (-18.6) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -13.0 (-23.0) | 132.3 (-18.3) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2022 | LUC 71 – 69 VAL |
| Jan 12, 2022 | LUC 81 – 74 VAL |
| Feb 18, 2021 | LUC 54 – 52 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-18 | 26-5 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 16-2 |
| Home | 6-6 | 13-0 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 56.4 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#235) | 11.9 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#314) | 1.23 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#291) | 1.87 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.378 (#323) | 0.548 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 50.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 20.1% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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