Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +400 LUC -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +2 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -11.8 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -11.3 (+9.3) | 135.7 (+4.3) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -11.4 (+9.4) | 139.8 (+0.2) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -10.8 (+8.8) | 140.1 (-0.1) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -9.4 (+7.4) | 137.7 (+2.3) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 12, 2022 | LUC 81 – 74 VAL |
| Feb 18, 2021 | LUC 54 – 52 VAL |
| Jan 21, 2021 | LUC 75 – 39 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-8 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 61.9 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#213) | 12.7 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#232) | 1.88 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#222) | 2.27 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#240) | 0.583 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 19.3% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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