Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | LUC -1700 VAL +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +7 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -19.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (+16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -18.2 (-11.2) | 140.1 (+14.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -15.3 (-8.3) | 143.4 (+11.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -15.7 (-8.7) | 143.9 (+11.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -15.2 (-8.2) | 142.8 (+12.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2022 | LUC 71 – 69 VAL |
| Feb 18, 2021 | LUC 54 – 52 VAL |
| Jan 21, 2021 | LUC 75 – 39 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-8 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.9 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 14.3 (#20) | -1.8 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#14) | -0.62 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.12 (#15) | -0.50 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#22) | 0.454 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.9% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 19.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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