Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | CREI -450 PROV +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +4 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | CREI -11.2 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -11.4 (-15.4) | 152.2 (-8.2) | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -9.0 (-13.0) | 151.7 (-7.7) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -11.5 (-15.5) | 151.9 (-7.9) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -11.1 (-15.1) | 150.6 (-6.6) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PROV 79 – 76 CREI |
| Jan 16, 2026 | PROV 93 – 88 CREI |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CREI 80 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 15, 2025 | CREI 84 – 64 PROV |
| Mar 14, 2024 | PROV 78 – 73 CREI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 15.4 (#15) | 6.9 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#33) | 1.45 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#29) | 2.03 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#44) | 0.547 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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