Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -400 JOES +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +2 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -7.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -5.9 (-3.9) | 146.0 (+26.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -5.1 (-3.1) | 149.1 (+22.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -6.7 (-4.7) | 150.1 (+21.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -5.9 (-3.9) | 147.9 (+24.1) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | JOES 81 – 63 GMU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | GMU 60 – 52 JOES |
| Mar 15, 2025 | GMU 74 – 64 JOES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GMU 58 – 57 JOES |
| Mar 13, 2024 | JOES 64 – 57 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-9 | 5-15 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 3-9 |
| Home | 7-3 | 3-3 |
| Away | 3-4 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 82.6 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#165) | -4.7 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#156) | -1.60 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#166) | -1.91 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#136) | 0.453 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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