Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -225 AUB +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +2 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -10.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -9.8 (-7.8) | 155.2 (-7.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -8.3 (-6.3) | 152.7 (-4.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -9.1 (-7.1) | 155.7 (-7.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -9.8 (-7.8) | 154.4 (-6.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | ARK 88 – 75 AUB |
| Jan 10, 2026 | AUB 95 – 73 ARK |
| Feb 20, 2025 | AUB 67 – 60 ARK |
| Jan 6, 2024 | AUB 83 – 51 ARK |
| Mar 10, 2023 | ARK 76 – 73 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-7 | 13-14 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#18) | 7.0 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#54) | 1.10 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#52) | 1.72 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#55) | 0.529 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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